The rebound
The Hong Kong Land Registry published Q1 2026 data on Monday showing 18,420 residential property transactions, up 32% YoY and the strongest quarter since 2021. The market rebound is being driven by the stamp-duty relief announced in the 2026-27 Budget and an aggressive inventory absorption by primary developers.
The composition
- New primary sales: 9,840 units (53% of total)
- Resale (secondary): 7,820 units (43%)
- Inheritance / gift: 760 units (4%)
The mid-market segment (HK$ 8M to HK$ 15M, roughly USD 1M to 2M) drove the bulk of the volume, taking 58% of primary sales. The luxury segment (HK$ 30M+) was flat YoY at 240 units.
What the brokers are saying
- Centaline: 2026 full-year volume forecast revised to 72,000 units (vs 65,000 prior)
- Midland: average price forecast revised to -3% (vs -5% prior)
- Cushman: rental index +1.8% QoQ in Q1, the first positive QoQ since Q2 2024
The transaction volume is back, the price discovery is still ahead of us. — JLL, Hong Kong research
Watch list
- The H1 2026 developer earnings (July-August)
- The next round of stamp duty tweaks (expected with the 2027-28 Budget, February 2027)
- The U.S. rate path (a Fed pause is a tailwind)
