The supply story
LME 3-month copper spread touched a USD 220 backwardation on Tuesday, the strongest print since November 2024, as a series of smelter maintenance outages in China and Chile tightened the near-term physical balance.
The maintenance schedule
- Jiangxi Copper: 200,000 tpy capacity offline (April-May)
- Tongling Nonferrous: 150,000 tpy capacity offline (April)
- Codelco Chuquicamata: 180,000 tpy offline (May-June)
The combined outage impact is approximately 110,000 tonnes over the April-June window, against an underlying monthly demand of approximately 1.2 million tonnes.
What it means for the price
- LME 3-month copper: $9,840, +2.4% WoW
- LME copper spread: backwardation deepens
- Chinese copper concentrate TC/RC: USD 22 / 2.2 cents (vs USD 80 / 8 cents a year ago)
The supply discipline is real and is being reinforced by the maintenance cycle. — Citi, base metals research
Watch list
- The Codelco restart timeline (early June expected)
- China refined copper imports (April data, due May 20)
- The LME inventory draws (currently at a 12-year low of 51,000 tonnes)
