The setup
The KOSPI closed at a fresh record on Wednesday, with Samsung Electronics leading the advance after guiding its HBM4 ASP 18% above the consensus Q2 estimate on the morning earnings call. The won firmed 0.7% to 1,375 against the dollar.
The key numbers
- Samsung HBM4 ASP guide: USD 480/unit (consensus: USD 407)
- 2026 HBM4 capacity: 80% sold out (per CFO)
- SK Hynix 2026 HBM4 share: 58% (per TrendForce)
- KOSPI close: 3,148 (+1.4%)
Samsung's Q1 2026 results beat on every line, with operating profit at KRW 14.2 trillion (consensus KRW 12.8 trillion). The HBM4 commentary was the main catalyst: the company now expects 2026 HBM revenue to triple YoY.
What it means for the supply chain
The HBM4 ramp pulls through Korean memory packaging (HANMI Semiconductor), Taiwanese foundry (TSMC CoWoS-S), and Japanese photoresist (Tokyo Ohka Kogyo, JSR). All three saw double-digit moves on Wednesday.
We're now modelling the HBM cycle to last through 2027. — Citi, Asia tech hardware
Risk factors
- A HBM4 qualification miss at any hyperscaler (NVIDIA, AMD, Google)
- A memory capex slowdown if AI demand disappoints in H2
- A won strength that pressures export earnings
