The cycle
The AI memory cycle enters its second year in 2026 with HBM shipments expected to outpace conventional DRAM by 4.6x in unit terms and 9.2x in revenue terms, per TrendForce data published Tuesday.
The key forecasts
- HBM4 unit shipments (2026): 4.6x 2025
- HBM4 revenue (2026): USD 88 billion (+128% YoY)
- DDR5 ASP (Q4 2026 forecast): flat QoQ (vs +18% HBM4)
- Samsung HBM4 share: 26% (vs SK Hynix 58%)
The divergence between HBM and conventional DRAM is the story of the cycle. HBM4 ASPs are guided 18% above consensus by Samsung; DDR5 ASPs are flat to modestly down across Micron, SK Hynix, and Nanya.
What it means for the supply chain
- TSMC CoWoS-S capacity: 92% sold out for 2026
- Korean memory packaging (HANMI, Nepes): +34% capex YoY
- Japanese photoresist (TOK, JSR, Sumitomo): HBM4 qualified, DDR5 mature
The HBM cycle is now the single most important semiconductor variable of 2026. — Citi, Asia tech hardware
Watch list
- NVIDIA Blackwell ramp (Q3 2026)
- AMD MI400 launch (Q4 2026)
- Google TPU v6 ramp (Q2 2026)
